Editors note: This story has been updated to reflect the fact that Ridgway has a Week 10 game vs. St. Marys that D9Sports.com wasn’t aware of that (the game was announced in May but for some reason wasn’t on the schedule D9Sports.com was using). Changes are highlighted in red italics. We apologize for any confusion this may have caused but this is why we stress that all of our scenarios are unofficial – Chris Rossetti, Editor D9Sports.com
In Class A this much is known, Kane, Brockway, Elk County Catholic and Redbank Valley have clinched berths. Kane will be either the No. 2 or the No. 4 seed in the bracket depending on the outcome of the AML Title game. A Wolves win in the title contest and they are No. 2, a Port Allegany win and Kane drops to No. 4. The outcome of the AML Title will also affect Brockway and Elk County Catholic. A Kane win means the winner of the Brockway/ECC game this week will be the No. 4 seed and host the loser of that game in the opening round of the playoffs in two weeks. If Port wins the title game, then the winner of the Brockway/ECC game is the No. 5 with the loser dropping to No. 6. Redbank Valley, meanwhile, will be either the top seed with a win over Clarion this week or the the third seed if the Bulldogs lose to the Bobcats.
Now for the fun part, what teams need to do to still get in. Some of this is easy and some isn’t.
First the easy: the fourth AML automatic spot.
The spot will go to Port Allegany with a Gators win over Sheffield and Curwensville loss to Ridgway. If Port and Curwensville both win, then we will wait another week to see who gets the fourth spot out of the AML. It would go to Curwensville if Port loses the AML title game, but Port would grab it and with it actually the No. 2 seed with a win in the AML championship contest. Now if both Port Allegany and Curwensville lose this week, Coudersport can grab the fourth spot with a win over Smethport as long as Port falls in the AML Title game. If Port, Curwensville and Coudersport all lose it creates a four-way tie between Port, Curwensville, Smethport and Ridgway which will have to be broken using Power Points.
Now for the medium hard: the KSAC second spot.
This is actually really easy if Clarion beats Redbank Valley because the Bobcats would grab the No. 1 KSAC spot and with it the No. 1 overall seed. But a Clarion loss makes Redbank Valley the KSAC Small School champion and with it the top seed.
In that case, Clarion still gains the second KSAC spot and No. 3 seed if C-L beats Union. Union could actually grab the No. 2 spot with a Clarion loss, a win over C-L and a Keystone loss to A-C Valley. If Union and Keystone both win and Clarion loses it creates a three-way tie that has to go into a deep tiebreaker where it appears Clarion would gain the spot but that hasn’t been 100 percent confirmed yet.
Once the automatic berths from the KSAC and AML have been decided it will be easier to figure out the two wild card spots.
We know this, Port Allegany will grab at least a wild card spot with a win over Sheffield, so even if the Gators don’t win the AML Title game or get the fourth AML spot they will be in the playoffs this week with a victory.
WILD CARD SCENARIO ONE
Now there are other scenarios than the ones we are going to look at below, but these are the two most likely things that could happen this week.
Wild Card Scenario One involved Curwensville beating, Port Allegany beating Sheffield and Clarion taking the automatic KSAC spot either first or second.
In this case, both Curwensville and Port Allegany clinch a playoff spot with one getting the AML fourth spot and the other one of the two wild card spots. Ridgway would be on life support and the Elkers would be eliminated with a C-L win over Union OR a Coudersport win over Smethport OR a Moniteau win over St. Marys OR a Brookville win over Bradford leaving the other wild card to be contested between Coudersport, Keystone, Union and Clarion-Limestone.
Of those teams, Keystone is the only one that controls its own destiny. A pair of Panther wins – they play A-C Valley this week and unbeaten Penns Manor in Week 10 – and they are in the postseason.
But a Keystone loss in either of those games opens the door for the other three.
Coudersport can get in with a Keystone loss, a win over Smethport and Clarion-Limestone loss to Union.
C-L can get in with a win and one Keystone loss.
Union needs the most helps needing to beat C-L and Moniteau while having Smethport beat Coudersport, St. Marys beat Ridgway and Keystone lose to both A-C Valley and Penns Manor.
Keystone could still possibly sneak in even with a loss if it wins once and Smethport beats Coudersport and Union beats C-L. The Panthers would also get in if Ridgway has been eliminated by one of the scenarios above. If Ridgway isn’t eliminated, an Keystone goes 1-1 with the win over A-C Valley, then there is a potential for a Power Points ties that may end up being broken by a coin toss. If Keystone’s win comes over Penns Manor, then the Panthers would win the Power Points tiebreaker over Ridgway.
WILD CARD SCENARIO 2 – Curwensville loses to Ridgway and beats Blairsville, Port Allegany beats Sheffield and Clarion grabs one of the two KSAC Wild Card spots
In this scenario, Curwensville clinches a playoff spot leaving one spot to be contested between Ridgway, Keystone, Coudersport and C-L with Union being eliminated.
KEYSTONE’S ROAD TO THE WILD CARD IN SCENARIO 2
Keystone is in with a win over Penns Manor AND a Ridgway loss to St. Marys.
Wins by Keystone and Ridgway put them both 6-4 and take us to the scenario above with Power Points.
A loss by Keystone would drop the Panthers to 5-5, but they could still get in if Ridgway loses to St. Marys, Coudersport loses to Smethport and C-L loses to Union creating a two-way tie between Ridgway and Keystone at 5-5 that would then go to the above Power Points tiebreaker that could go either way depending on a 1/2 dozen games.
RIDGWAY’S ROAD TO THE WILD CARD IN SCENARIO 2
Ridgway is in with a win over St. Marys AND a Keystone loss to Penns Manor.
Wins by Ridgway and Keystone put them both 6-4 and take us to the scenario above with Power Points.
A loss by Ridgway would drop the Elkers to 5-5, but they could still get in if Keystone loses to Penns Manor, Coudersport loses to Smethport and C-L loses to Union creating a two-way tie between Ridgway and Keystone at 5-5 that would then go to the above Power Points tiebreaker that could go either way depending on a 1/2 dozen games.
Ridgway is in if Curwensville loses to Blairsville AND Keystone loses to Penns Manor
COUDERSPORT’S ROAD TO THE WILD CARD IN SCENARIO 2
For Coudersport to get in, the Falcons must beat Smethport to finish 5-4 and have Union beat C-L, St. Marys beat Ridgway and Keystone lose to either A-C Valley or Penns Manor.
CLARION-LIMESTONE’S ROAD TO THE WILD CARD IN SCENARIO 2
The Lions must beat Union to finish at 5-4 and have St. Marys beat Ridgway and Keystone lose to either A-C Valley or Penns Manor.
WILD CARD SCENARIO 3 – Curwensville loses to Ridgway and Blairsville, Port Allegany beats Sheffield and Clarion grabs one of the two KSAC Wild Card spots
In this scenario, two wild card spots are being contested between Ridgway, Keystone, Curwensville, Coudersport, C-L and Union.
CURWENSVILLE’S ROAD TO THE WILD CARD IN SCENARIO 3
Curwensville would be in if Keystone loses to
Curwensville would finish 5-5 and need Keystone to lose to either A-C Valley OR Penns Manor AND Ridgway to lose to St. Marys AND Union to beat C-L and Smethport to beat Coudersport to create either 3-way tie at 5-5 with Ridgway and Keystone OR Union or a 4-way tie at 5-5 with Ridgway, Keystone and Union which would then go to Power Points which Curwensville would win.
KEYSTONE’S ROAD TO THE WILD CARD IN SCENARIO 3
Keystone is in with a win over Penns Manor.
Even with a loss, Keystone could still have a path to the postseason if St. Marys beats Ridgway, Union beats C-L and Smethport beats Coudersport creating either a 3-way tie at 5-5 with Curwensville and Ridgway or a 4-way tie at 5-5 with Curwensville, Ridgway and Union sending the tiebreaker to Power Points which would grant Curwensville one of the spots and leave the second spot up for grabs between Ridgway, Keystone and Union which may or may not eliminate Union based on head-to-head but would definitely be determined by Power Points meaning the outcome of at least a 1/2 dozen other games could play a role.
RIDGWAY’S ROAD TO THE WILD CARD IN SCENARIO 3
Ridgway is in with a win over St. Marys.
Ridgway would also be in with a loss if Keystone loses to both A-C Valley and Penns Manor, Union beats C-L and Smethport beats Coudersport creating either a 3-way tie with Union and Curwensville or a tie with Curwensville, both of which Ridgway wins on head-to-head.
Even with a loss and Keystone going 1-1, Ridgway could still have a path to the postseason Union beats C-L and Smethport beats Coudersport creating either a 3-way tie at 5-5 with Curwensville and Keystone or a 4-way tie at 5-5 with Curwensville, Keystone and Union sending the tiebreaker to Power Points which would grant Curwensville one of the spots and leave the second spot up for grabs between Ridgway, Keystone and Union which may or may not eliminate Union based on head-to-head but would definitely be determined by Power Points meaning the outcome of at least a 1/2 dozen other games could play a role.
COUDERSPORT’S ROAD TO THE WILD CARD IN SCENARIO 3
For Coudersport to get in, the Falcons must beat Smethport to finish 5-4 and have Union beat C-L,
St. Marys beat Ridgway and Keystone lose to either A-C Valley or Penns Manor.
CLARION-LIMESTONE’S ROAD TO THE WILD CARD IN SCENARIO 3
The Lions must beat Union to finish at 5-4 and have St. Marys beat Ridgway and Keystone lose to either A-C Valley or Penns Manor.
UNION’S ROAD TO THE WILD CARD IN SCENARIO 3
Union’s only hope, and this may not even be the case, would be to finish in a 4-way tie with Curwensville, Keystone and Ridgway at 5-5 and hope the Power Point break its way while not being eliminated based on loses to Keystone and Ridgway.
OTHER SCENARIOS
While the two scenarios listed above are the most likely wild-card scenarios, there are other scenarios that would take too long to explain or even figure out at this point that could happen depending on certain outcomes including one where Clarion doesn’t get an automatic berth from the KSAC. If those scenarios start to play out, stay tuned to D9Sports for all the latest playoff information.
